EU Could Usher in Better Russian Relations

Baltic entry into the European Union, planned for next year, could improve what have often been severely strained diplomatic and trade relations with neighboring Russia, officials in the Baltic states say. Estonian Prime Minister Juhan Parts said Wednesday, just days before a Sept. 14 referendum on EU membership, that his country’s entry into the mighty European bloc could help consign historical anxieties—dating back centuries— to the past. “It’ll make us feel more secure, and it’ll give us more stature,” said Part, speaking at his office in Tallinn, near a large orthodox cathedral that once symbolized Russian power here. “And Russia will see we’re not a bad country— just a normal European state.”

Upcoming, EU referendums in Estonia and Latvia— on Sept. 20— should pass, though not by nearly the 90-percent-yes margin of the May referendum in the third Baltic state, Lithuania. The Baltics, along with seven other candidate, are slated to enter the EU in May, 2004. Since the Soviet collapse restored their independence in 1991, all Baltics have complained at times about what they’ve described as Russian bullying. Moscow, in turn, has often accused Estonia and Latvia of discriminating against their large Russian-speaking minorities.

Recent Estonian Foreign Minister Toomas Ilves said Russia won’t want to jeopardize its all-important trade and diplomatic relationship with the EU— and so could be expected to avoid direct confrontations with the Baltic states in the future. “For 12 years, Russia has constantly exerted political and economic pressure on the Baltic states, especially Latvia,” he was quoted as telling Estonia’s Postimees daily. “I presume that after Estonia joins the EU, Russia will abandon its harsh, arrogant policies … it will soften.”

Age-old trepidation about Russia among Balts is also likely to wane. Lingering fears is illustrated by one pro-membership advertisement in Estonia, trying to convey that EU accession will offer protection from Russia: It lists the half-dozen times neighboring Russia has waged war on Estonia, starting with Ivan the Terrible’s invasion in 1558. “Before, we were too weak to deal with Russia directly on our own,” said Marko Mihkelson, chair of the Estonian parliament’s foreign affairs committee. “In EU and NATO, we’re not alone anymore. That’ll make our politicians less emotional in dealing with Russia. That helps.”

Changing mindsets could also boost trade. Before the Soviet Union unraveled, the vast majority of Baltic exports went to Russia. Today, less than 10 percent do, with EU states now accounting for over 80 percent of Baltic trade. Legislators have complained for years about double tariffs imposed by Moscow on Estonian exports to Russia, saying they’ve stifled trade. Mihkelson said they’d be dropped automatically when Estonia enters the EU— according to EU-Russian trade pacts. Even doubling the Baltics’ now relatively modest trade with their giant neighbor could prove a boon to the small but already economically dynamic Baltic states _ who saw growth near or above 5 percent for several years straight and who have aspirations to become so called Baltic Tigers.

The Russian bear could also profit. “I recently talked to Russian officials in towns near Estonia,” said Mihkelson. “They’re definitely eager to see Estonia in the EU, to see the EU border so close. They know this will create great business opportunities for them.” Russian investors, already present here, are likely to be further enticed by the prospect that the nearby Baltics can provide seamless, duty-free access to the whole EU.

Ilves said EU membership for the Baltics, with their long if troubled history with Russia, would also mean displacing a nearby Nordic nation as the acknowledged authority on the East. “Finland,” after the Baltic states join the bloc, said Ilves, “will no longer be the Russian expert to which the EU turns.”

In Latvia, Edge to Yes Camp—Just
A Latvian opinion poll released Wednesday, September 3, indicated that just below 50 percent of voters were committed to voting yes in the September 20 referendum on European Union membership. Some 25 percent were still undecided, however, and the yes camp was likely to pick up many of those who haven’t yet made up their minds. If the number of committed voters holds steady, the final result in the referendum should be over 50 or even 60 percent in favor. The InMind polling agency interviewed some 600 people at the end of August.

Many Latvians, like their counterparts in Estonia, who vote on EU entry a week earlier, appear doubtful that the EU will benefit them personally. But more than enough voters seem willing to at least give the power bloc a chance, accepting arguments made by the country’s avidly pro-EU leadership that membership will increase standards of living in Latvia in the medium term and also provide lasting protection from any outside economic, political and even military pressure from Russia.

Others have also argued that EU entry will actually improve sometimes strained relations with Moscow by giving Russian businesses easier access to Western markets via EU-member Latvia. Russian investors, who already invest heavily in Latvia, could be even more attracted to the region once it is part of the borderless EU customs areas.

Estonia EU Numbers Up
Support for European Union entry has recently risen in Estonia, appearing to lessen the chances that its EU membership referendum next week could fail, according to an opinion poll released on Tuesday, September 2. The survey by the Estonian-based Emor indicated that of those planning to cast ballots on Sept. 14, 70 percent would vote yes and 30 percent no. The agency questioned 753 eligible voters and respondents weren’t given the option of saying they were undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

Estonia and neighboring Latvia, which holds its EU referendum on Sept. 20, have been widely pegged as the most EU-skeptical nations in Europe—with surveys consistently showing that people in both countries are doubtful about the benefits of joining. For much of this year, the percentage of people saying they back membership drifted between 50 and 60 percent, depending on the question asked—at least raising the possibility that this Baltic Sea nation could become the first EU candidate to reject membership.

Estonia’s pro-EU government, spooked by the lukewarm support for the EU early this summer, has since pulled out the stops, campaigning hard and warning of dire consequences should people opt out of the bloc. Leaders say Estonia’s economy and national security would be jeopardized. The no camp, which is cash-strapped and boasts few prominent public figures, has been less effective at getting its anti-EU message out. “Campaigning really only started in early August and it’s made a difference. The government, and other key associations and businesses, have called for a yes vote,” said Aivar Voog, an Emor analyst. “Chances of the referendum failing now are very small—maybe 1 or 2 percent, I’d say.”

Skeptics argue that Estonia would be dictated to by larger nations within the EU and that the country’s fragile Finno-Ugric culture would come under threat. They also compare the EU to the centralized Soviet Union, which Estonia broke away from 12 years ago. Estonia’s main opposition party, the center-left Center Party, voted at a conference last month to oppose EU membership. But rather than rallying EU detractors, that decision appears to have had the effect of energizing pro-EU forces.

Key Party Opposes EU Entry
Estonia’s main opposition party came out against entry into the European Union—a dramatic decision that is expected to greatly intensify debate here in the run-up to next month’s closely contested referendum on EU membership. The other leading parties in Estonia, including the three ruling parties, all argue that entering the European bloc will improve the nation’s economic prospects and make the small, historically vulnerable country more secure.

But the left-leaning Center Party, which controls 28 seats in Estonia’s 101-seat parliament, became the first mainstream Estonian party to ever openly oppose the EU after delegates at its annual party congress in August to adopt an anti-EU platform. Many delegates at Saturday’s gathering, including several Center Party leaders, spoke passionately in favor of EU entry. But others argued Estonia would be dictated to by larger nations within the bloc and that membership would mean sharply higher food prices, hurting the poor. One EU skeptic held a placard outside party’s meeting hall in Tartu that read, “EU entry is a project of the business and political elite.” Another said, “No to EU price rises and bureaucracy.”

Center Party chairman Edgar Savisaar appeared to waver about whether or not he personally opposed EU membership, saying he would have preferred a party platform that remained neutral. But in a speech before delegates voted, he had harsh words for the EU, saying he saw parallels between it and the centralized Soviet Union. Out 803 Center Party delegates who cast ballots, 341 favored the anti-EU line, 235 wanted the party to support membership and 227 called for the party to take no stand at all. Estonia’s referendum is on Sept. 14—followed by Latvia’s six days later.

The two Baltic states are widely pegged as the most EU skeptical of the 10 nations scheduled to join in 2004. The Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta have already approved EU referendums—most by wide margins. Cyprus is leaving its decision to lawmakers. Opinion poll figures have bounced up and down for months in Estonia and Latvia, with the percentage of EU backers sometimes edging over 60 percent, then dipping close to 50 percent—depending on the question asked. Most polls show at least 10 percent of voters are undecided.

“A politician who compares the EU with the Soviet Union simply doesn’t know what the EU is,” pro-EU Estonian Prime Minister Juhan Parts was quoted as telling Monday’s Eesti Paevaleht daily when asked about Savisaar’s comments; he said he was still confident Estonia’s referendum would pass. The Postimees newspaper said in a Monday commentary that the Center Party’s anti-EU stance “could force the pro-EU camp to consolidate,” boosting the EU side’s prospects; it also said the move could lead to the Center Party’s political isolation—especially if Estonia does enter the EU next year.

Latvia, Estonia: Most EU-Skeptical
European Union supporters in Latvia and Estonia expressed concern on Thursday, July 24 about a new survey pegging their countries as the most EU-skeptical in Europe—findings that come just two months before both Baltic states hold referendums on membership. A mere 32 percent of Estonians and 37 percent of Latvians agreed entry would be “a good thing,” making them the most pessimistic of those questioned in the EU study released Wednesday. By contrast, 72 percent of Cypriots and 61 percent of Poles said joining would be good for them.

Latvia and Estonia will be the last of 10 EU candidate countries to put the issue of entry to a vote—and observers say there’s now a chance that one or both nations could become the first to reject membership in Europe’s most powerful multilateral club. “People are afraid, they don’t know what to believe and they’re confused,” said Pille-Mai Helemae, spokeswoman for the high-profile “Yes to the EU” group in Estonia. “It’s going to be a hard fight. But in the end, I’m sure enough people will see more pros than cons to membership.” Confusion about the EU was illustrated in the biannual Eurobarometer _ which questioned 1,000 people in each candidate nation in May—with 62 percent of Latvian and 71 percent of Estonian respondents saying they were either poorly informed about the accession process or not informed at all.

The Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta have already approved EU referendums, most by wide margins. Cyprus is leaving it’s decision to lawmakers. If Estonia and Latvia pass their plebiscites on Sept. 14 and Sept. 20 respectively, they would join the EU together with the other candidates in 2004.
Virtually all top leaders in Estonia and Latvia have been pro-EU since the Baltic Sea nations regained independence—arguing that entry will raise their nations international stature, forge vital European trade links and boost living standards.

But official enthusiasm has never been matched outside the halls of power, with many Estonians and Latvians fearing a loss of sovereignty to the EU. Anti-EU groups compare what they say is an overly centralized EU with the U.S.S.R.; one of their symbols is an EU flag stamped with a Communist hammer and sickle.
If the results of the latest survey spooked EU supporters, they delighted opponents. “If you’re a EU supporter, I believe the picture is even blacker,” said Uno Silberg, who heads Estonia’s “No to the EU Movement.” “We’re confident the referendum will fail.”

But there was good news for pro-EU forces in the survey. Doubts about the EU, for one thing, don’t seem to automatically translate into no voters. Only 31 percent of Estonians and 27 percent of Latvians said they were sure they’d cast ballots against entry, with 41 and 49 percent saying they’d definitely vote yes. The rest were undecided or said they wouldn’t go to the polls at all—giving a clear edge to the ‘yes’ camp.

Opposition Leader EU Qualms
Estonian opposition leader Edgar Savisaar has expressed reservations about the benefits of joining the European Union—his critical comments coming months before a crucial Sept. 14 referendum on membership. The head of the leftist Center Party, one of Estonia’s largest parties, wrote in Thursday’s edition of the Postimees daily that Estonians shouldn’t accept arguments that they had no choice—for economic and security reasons—but to join the powerful European bloc. “This is the worst reason for accession. Estonia is an independent state. We don’t have to do anything that we don’t want to do,” he said.

Virtually all top leaders, both in government and in opposition, have voiced support for EU membership since Estonia regained independence—and such publicly expressed doubts from a high-profile figure have been rare. Savisaar’s party is expected to take a formal position on the referendum next month, and there has been widespread media speculation that Savisaar could call on voters to say no to the EU. Other key leaders in his party have said unequivocally that they back the EU bid.

Savisaar stopped short of saying he opposed membership Thursday, insisting he was neither a “Euro-skeptic nor a Euro-optimist.” He has said in the past that there would be at least some benefits of joining the EU, like the possibility of faster economic development in some sectors. But Savisaar, who is also the mayor of Tallinn, singled out the new EU draft constitution for criticism Thursday, saying “it makes the EU constitution superior to the constitutions of each member state” and creates a single super state. “That puts everything in place,” he wrote, adding Estonia is on record as opposing a heavily centralized EU. “We should be bold enough to admit we were unable to prevent such developments.”

Savisaar’s comments come as Estonia’s pro-EU leadership, spooked by opinion polls showing lukewarm support for entering the bloc, began explicitly urging residents to vote yes in the referendum. Last month, President Arnold Ruutel, Prime Minister Juhan Parts and Parliament Speaker Ene Ergma warned that failure to approve EU entry would deliver a severe blow to the country. “Staying out of the EU will mean a serious backlash for the economy,” a joint statement from the three read. “Staying out of the EU means being in a security vacuum.” EU proponents argue that membership would protect the country from economic and military pressure from neighboring Russia. Savisaar has said EU advocates exaggerate the dangers from the East.

Baltic Side with EU on Court; US Cuts Aid
The three Baltic states, staunch supporters of the United States for years, criticized Washington’s decision on July 1 to cut off U.S. military aid over their failure to sign agreements promising never to hand Americans over to the International Criminal Court. Some Estonians, Latvians and Lithuanians said that the cutoff could be seen as a slap in the face after they went out on a limb earlier this year to back Washington’s policy on Iraq; all three have also sent peacekeeping troops to the Persian Gulf. “As future NATO members, we expect to be dealt with as allies, not like this,” said Marko Mihkelson, head of the Estonian legislature’s foreign affairs committee.

Baltic hesitation about signing immunity deals stemmed from their plans to also join the European Union, which opposes current or future members signing such agreements. But the Baltics, once extremely nervous about offending one side or another, now seem to have sided firmly with the EU. “Estonia’s position is that we accepted the International Criminal Court and don’t see, as a future EU member, any serious reason to join the U.S. immunity agreement,” Mihkelson said. Latvia and Lithuania also said they will now follow the EU’s lead.

The United States has been among the largest contributors of military aide to the Baltic states, providing tens of millions of dollars over the past several years. U.S. aid to the fledging Baltic armies—which, combined, number less than 20,000 troops—has been key to their efforts to modernize. Estonia, for instance, received 3 million dollars last year, part of which was used to buy 44 helicopters. U.S. aide has also been used to build a pan-Baltic radar network, the absence of which had made the Baltics almost completely vulnerable to airborne attacks. But Estonian Defense Ministry spokesman Madis Mikko said that all 6 million in aid from the United States this year had already been spent, so the aid cut wouldn’t immediately affect Estonia.

He said he understood aid would resume after the Baltics enter NATO next year. “So we’ve really lost nothing. It’s not tragic,” he said. “It’s more a political issue.” Lithuania’s 12 million and Latvia’s 10 million has also been allocated before the July 1 cutoff of aid, so it would also not be lost. The fact that the Baltics were able to spend this year’s money in ample time seems to suggest Washington intended, first and foremost, to make a political statement rather than to actually penalize or damage Baltic militaries.

Mihkelson added that he didn’t think the U.S. measure would have long-lasting consequences. “I don’t see this as a disaster,” he said. “The overwhelming feeling here and in Washington is that relations are very good and I don’t think this particular issue will turn that around.”

Leaders Abandon ‘Neutrality,’ Calls for Yes Vote
Estonian leaders, seemingly spooked by opinion polls showing lukewarm support for European Union membership, broke with what had been established protocol in late June by explicitly urging citizens to vote yes in an upcoming EU referendum. Until June, the nation’s pro-EU leadership said it would call on some 1 million eligible voters to cast ballots but not tell people how they should vote in the run-up to the Sept. 14 plebiscite.

But in the first statement of its kind Wednesday, June 25, President Arnold Rüütel, Prime Minister Juhan Parts and Parliament Speaker Ene Ergma no longer minced words, warning that failure to approve EU entry would deliver a severe blow to the small Baltic state. “Staying out of the EU will mean a serious backlash for the economy,” the joint statement read. “Staying out of the EU means being in a security vacuum.” The communiqué did not elaborate about the security consequences, though pro-EU groups have argued that Estonia, as a member of the European bloc, would be immune from economic or even military pressure from neighboring Russia—which dominated Estonia for much of the 21st century.

The appeal also challenged EU critics in this economically dynamic, Western-oriented nation of 1.4 million people who say entry will result in a loss of sovereignty and endanger the country’s Finno-Ugric culture and vowel-laden language—which is closely related to Finnish. “The Estonian language will be an official EU language and this will secure the future of our mother tongue,” Estonia’s top three civil servants said, adding that membership will also “help Estonian living standards reach the level of wealthy EU nations.”

EU skeptics blasted the statement as a breach of earlier pledges. “They promised not to campaign like this. This is arm twisting,” complained Igor Gräzin, a law professor and leading EU opponent here. “But what it says is that they are scared. They are scared that the tide has turned against EU membership in the last few weeks and months.” Gräzin said the recent publication of an EU draft constitution frightened many Estonians. He said many saw it as a prescription for an overly centralized, heavy-handed union and was too similar to the constitution of the totalitarian USSR.”It’s Kafkaesque,” he said. “Even many of these Estonians leaders say privately they don’t feel good about joining the EU. But when they come together, you get this collective preaching—as if they’re all trying hard to convince each other that the EU is very good after all.”

Gräzin, also a former parliamentarian and a one-time independence activist, added that official debate about the EU reminded him of Soviet-era discussions about Party leaders. “It’s like when I sat in on meetings of the Communist Party, where those present would argue whether Leonid Brezhnev was a genius or just extremely talented. With the EU, it’s whether membership will be a heavenly paradise or merely paradise on earth,” he said.

Hannes Rumm, head of the Estonian government’s EU information office, denied the joint statement contradicted earlier promises, saying the government only vowed that it would not spend taxpayers money on commercial advertising calling for a “yes” vote.
Opinion poll numbers have bounced up and down for months, with the percentage of EU backers sometimes edging toward 60 percent, but also dipping to 50—depending on the question asked. Most polls show at least 10 percent of voters are undecided.

Estonia is the next in a series of EU-candidate countries to have held referendums. Latvia will be the last to hold one—on Sept. 20. To date, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta have all approved EU referendums. Cyprus is leaving the choice to parliament.

Appeal for EU Help on Environmental Cleanup
Estonian officials say that 2 percent of the country remains contaminated by Soviet-era pollution, adding that it will require at least ten more years and the help of European Union money to clean up the worst areas. Estonia’s Environment Ministry said about 900 square kilometers of the country’s of 45,000 square kilometers, or about 2 percent, are thought to have environmental problems that date back to Soviet rule, most from Soviet bases that dotted the nation.

Ministry spokesman Rene Reisner said Estonia will soon apply for a 7-million-dolar grant from the EU to help pay for the clean-up. Estonia, along with Latvia and Lithuania, is slated to join the bloc next year. He said Estonia was bound by EU membership treaties to clean up the pollution. Kertu Kaera, a spokesman for the EU’s office in Tallinn, said the EU was “aware of the environmental problems” and would favorably consider requests for aid.

After the Soviets occupied the Baltics in 1940, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were home to tens of thousands of Red Army troops. Moscow withdrew its last troops from the region in 1994, three years after the Baltics regained independence. More than 1,000 Soviet military installations were located along Estonia’s 3,800 kilometers of winding coasts, in the country’s dense forests or on islands, with dozens of bases and bunkers in and around Tallinn.

The money to be requested from the EU is only a fraction of what officials say they need to fully erase all traces of Soviet abuse of the land. The environment ministry has said the environmental damage caused by the five decades of Soviet occupation was as much as 5 billion dollars, or larger than Estonia’s entire annual budget of about 3 billion dollars. But Reisner said 1.5 billion dollars must be spent over the next ten years to bring the country into compliance with EU regulations by 2013.
Some of the worst damage was in the coastal town of Paldiski, 50 kilometers from the capital, where the Soviets had a nuclear submarine base. The area is still littered with spent shells and some nuclear waste, though the most dangerous residue has been contained.

The nearby islands of Pakri were used for target practice by Soviet long-range bombers that flew in, showered explosives onto the islands, then returned to Russia, according to Madis Mikko, a spokesman for Estonia’s Ministry of Defense. Cleanup projects are underway on the islands. At Soviet air bases in Estonia, pilots often dumped tons of airplane fuel to hide evidence from their superiors that they hadn’t flown the required number of training hours, Mikko said. “There was a time when you could dig down to the water table level in some places and find virtually pure fuel oil, take it out and set it alight,” he said. “But a lot of the worst areas were cleaned several years ago.”

Estonian officials have said Moscow should help pay for the clean-up, but said that was unlikely to happen. “The rest of the world is funding the cleanup of Russia’s own environmental problems,” he said. “So I have no hope Russia would pay us. But it would be morally correct.”

Long Catch Up to EU Living Standards
It will take the Baltic states some 30 to 50 years to catch up to living standards in current European Union states, according to a study released in June by the Economist Intelligence Unit. Among Eastern European countries, it said that Estonia and Slovenia would close the economic gap the fastest, roughly reaching EU living standards in 31 years; it said it would take Lithuania 53 years and Latvia 58. Romania will take the longest time to catch up, some 80 years, the London-based research group estimated.

The calculations were made on the basis of relatively optimistic growth scenarios, with annual GDP growth in the Baltics states staying at or above 4 percent for the next several decades. But the report warned that it could take the countries even longer to match standards of wealth farther West if government leaders make the wrong policy choices.

It add that EU membership, which the Baltics and several other East European countries will win next year, won’t be an automatic economic boost. “The true impact depends not on the mere fact of adding countries to the EU club, but on the interplay between policy and the potential that enlargement creates,” said Daniel Franklin, Editorial Director of the Economist Intelligence Unit. Economic performance will vary, and with it the pattern of growth across the EU, but intensified competition in an enlarged single market generally will encourage policies that make markets more open and flexible, the report said.

Referendums Boost Estonian, Latvian Bids
Pro-European Union forces in Estonia and Latvia, dubbed the most EU skeptical of ten candidate nations, say recent approval of membership referendums in Poland and other countries has boosted chances that their own referendums will pass successfully. Recent opinion polls in both Baltic states indicate between 55-60 percent of residents back entry into the powerful European bloc, though in recent years that number has sometimes fallen below 50 percent—with many Estonians and Latvians saying they worry about losing sovereignty to the EU.

Supporters in the two Baltics, however, say overwhelming yes votes in the fellow Baltic state of Lithuania last month and also in nearby Poland this past weekend is creating what they describe as an irresistible, pro-EU momentum. Hungary, Slovakia, Slovenia and Malta have also approved EU referendums; the Czech Republic votes this week, and Estonia and Latvia in September. Parliament is making the choice in Cyprus.

The chairman of Estonia’s foreign affairs committee in parliament, Marko Mihkelson, said his countrymen will have the yes results very much in mind when they go to polling stations on Sept. 14. “It somehow makes our decision easier,” he said. “After the Czech referendum, ours is the next one. And after a row of yeses, I can’t imagine the Estonians saying no to the EU.” Hannes Rumm, head of the Estonian government’s EU information office, said the yes vote in Lithuania, where there was a 91 percent yes tally, had a particularly strong influence on Estonians—especially those who were wavering on membership.

“For hesitators, Lithuania’s a role model,” he said. “Their thinking is, ‘If Lithuania did it, we have no choice to follow them. There will be a border between us and them if we don’t. And we broke out of the Soviet Union together, it’s only right that we join the EU together.’” Uno Silberg—who heads Estonia’s main anti-EU group, the No to the EU Movement—said he felt Estonians would draw a different conclusion: that the series of candidate countries were railroaded into voting yes and that this will turn even more Estonians off to membership. “In all these votes, it’s only one side, supported by the government and by officials from outside the countries, that was heard,” he said. “It’s all been very unfair campaigning.” He added, though, that he still had hope of defeating the referendum.

But Rumm said recent surveys bore out the positive affect of all the yes votes to date, with one showing that backing for the EU leapt from 50 to 59 percent just after Lithuania voted; around 10 percent remain undecided. The same May study by Estonia’s EMOR found that, among those who said they’d bother casting ballots at all, 63 percent would vote yes—further buttressing the optimism of EU enthusiasts. Analysts also say that poll numbers have, if Lithuania and Poland are any guide, tended to underestimate the strength of EU support.

EU backers in Estonia and Latvia aren’t likely to count on momentum carrying them to victory on Sept. 20, when Latvia will be the last EU candidate to hold such a referendum. The Estonian and Latvian governments are expected to launch massive get-out-the-vote campaigns and to also continue issuing warnings, however subtly, that staying out of the EU could be an economic, political and security disaster.

Lithuania Eyes Future After Referedum Lithuanians began looking to their future in the European Union following a weekend referendum in May that resulted in a whopping 90 percent of voters approving entry into the powerful bloc; many Lithuanians are hopeful that membership will further improve their lives. “Lithuania Wakes Up in the European Union,” read a banner headline on the front of Lithuania’s largest daily, Lietuvos Rytas, Monday. In an editorial, it added that EU membership should increase living standards and help the country “fully reach the levels of the modern world.”

Incoming investment and EU aid money could also boost the economy—booming at 9 percent growth the first quarter of 2003—to new heights. Advocates say entry also returns Lithuania to its rightful place in Europe and gives the historically vulnerable nation a sense of security.
Even though it is now EU bound, Lithuania still faces a host of social and economic problems, including a yawning gap between rich and poor; the average monthly wage in Lithuania, the equivalent of less than 300 dollars, is half that of the poorest current EU member, Greece. While increased wealth is apparent in more and more giant shopping malls and posh restaurant in the cities, poverty seems rampant in the countryside; many farmer can’t afford modern equipment and so still use horses and age-old wooden plows to till their fields.

Farmers hope subsidies from the EU will improve their lot—though they have complained about an EU decision to provide lowers levels of agricultural subsidies to new members. But at least one Lithuania newspaper, Verslo Zinios, has warned that the country should not begin waiting around for EU aide and subsidies to help Lithuania achieve its goal of becoming a regional economic powerhouse in the manner of Ireland, dubbed the Celtic Tiger. “Tigers,” said the paper, “don’t milk cows.”

Lithuania First to Vote Itself in to EU
Fireworks exploded over the capital, Lithuanians uncorked champagne and broke into song when it became clear late Sunday that the country would be the first Baltic state to vote itself into the European Union after a two-day referendum. A dramatic surge in voting on the last day of voting on Sunday, May 11, meant that, despite initial fears, the referendum would be valid—prompting celebrations that lasted into Monday morning, including fireworks that lit up the medieval old town in Vilnius. “Who will be the winner today? Lithuania is the winner,” Parliament Speaker Arturas Paulauskas declared, raising a crystal glass in a parliamentary hallway, calling for a toast. As he spoke, applauding lawmakers sang the national anthem in full voice, some of them teary-eyed.

With 100 percent of all the results counted, the “yes” vote was 91 percent, far higher than even opinion polls had predicted. Election officials said 64 percent of registered voters had cast ballots—easily exceeding the required 50 percent minimum.
Down the street from the parliament building, the Prie Parlamento bar handed out small flags with EU golden stars on one side and the red, green and yellow Lithuanian tricolor on the other. A van drove down the street blaring Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy,” the anthem of the EU, from loudspeakers. On the steps of the presidential palace in the Vilnius old city, some 500 young people waved blue balloons while rock bands played; Lithuanian and EU flags flew side by side over the building.

Turnout was just 30 percent Saturday, the first day of the vote, prompting jittery leaders to urge residents to vote; Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas demonstrated his nervousness by canceling a Saturday trip to Estonia, where he was to attend a 75th birthday party for Estonian President Arnold Ruutel. Analysts said a large number of people voted after church services Sunday in the predominantly Catholic country. In his remarks, Paulauskas singled out clergymen—thanking them for urging parishioners to cast their ballots.

Any failure to approve the referendum would have been a major embarrassment for Lithuania, where virtually all major parties staunchly back EU accession. It also could have cast a pall over future EU referendums, including those planed for the other two Baltic states in September. As the results became clear in Lithuania, however, Latvians and Estonians said the positive Lithuanian result would improve their own chances of passing referendums. “This is fantastic for Latvia,” said Ramona Umblija, a Latvian organizer of its vote later this year, in Vilnius observing the Lithuanian poll. “There is a friendly rivalry between the three Baltics. Latvians are now going to say, ‘Ah, Lithuania passed theirs. We must pass ours.’”

In Brussels, President of the Commission Romano Prodi also hailed the day, saying the landslide in favor of membership bodes well for Lithuania’s future in the powerful European bloc. “As a result, there will be a strong voice for Lithuania inside the EU,” he said. “This will be good for Lithuania, and I am convinced it will also be good for the EU.” “It is encouraging for all of us to see such enthusiasm for EU accession,” added EU Commissioner for Enlargement Gunter Verheugen.

Estonia Bucks for EU IT Agency
Estonia wants to host a new European Union information technology agency, with officials here arguing that the country’s advanced Internet infrastructure and lower business costs made it ideally qualified. Estonia doesn’t now belong to the EU but is expected to join in May, 2004—around the time the agency is to be founded, said Arvo Ott, of the Economics Ministry’s Informatics Department. He said Estonia recently notified the EU of its desire to host the 50-employee office.

The EU agency, dubbed the Network and Information Security Agency, would concentrate on Internet and mobile phone security, including by finding ways to prevent fraud in commercial transactions in cyberspace. Nearby tech giants Finland and Sweden are also trying to woo the EU agency to their shores.

Ott said one question was how Estonia could begin the application process to become an agency host country when it wasn’t yet in the EU. He said Estonians were inquiring with EU legal experts about how this might be done. “This could be a major obstacle,” he said.
Dubbed E-Stonia by some, the country ranked No. 8 out of 82 countries in putting the Net to practical use in a recent World Economic Forum report. “We believe we have lots of selling points,” said Ott. “We have good Internet systems, a well-educated work force, low costs and excellent contacts with existing EU countries.”